At first glance, there are promising signs of some improvement in numeracy scores since these children were last tested. However, on closer inspection, we find that learning levels are considerably below what would be expected if they had continued on the same trajectory as their gains in learning in Grade 4. For those in urban areas, their learning progressed at less than half of the speed that would have been expected if they continued at the same pace. Progress was even lower for rural students, whose learning progressed by only one third. This is of particular concern as the above results show that the already wide rural-urban gap has probably widened (see Figure 1). Similarly, when we disaggregate the results by girls and boys, we find that gains for both are lower than would be expected, though there appears to be a slight (but not significant) narrowing of the gender gap.

Notes:  

1. The numeracy test was developed using a combination of questions from the previous Young Lives Ethiopia School Survey with students in Grade 4 and in Grades 7 to 8. The Young Lives tests were developed following guidance from the Ethiopian Ministry of Education and the National Educational Assessment and Examinations Agency. We used similar items that were previously used in our assessment with Grade 4 students in 2019 to enable us to anchor our measures and estimate absolute progress over time.
2. Average numeracy scores are transformed to a mean of 500 and standard deviation of 100. The numeracy scores at the start of Grade 4, end of Grade 4 and start of Grade 6 are placed on the same scale, giving an approximate measure of progress in numeracy over time.

As schools reopened and students completed their catch-up classes, we also re-tested 2,645 children in schools and households aged between around 6 and 7 years, who we had previously assessed when they were of pre-primary-school age in November to December 2019. Encouragingly, the vast majority of those children who had been attending a government pre-primary class in 2019 before school closures, returned to school, with 22 percent returning to O-Class, and 70 percent entering Grade 1 of primary school. There is also evidence that numeracy scores had improved for these younger children over the period of school closures. Given we were not able to test these children prior to pre-primary education, we are unable to identify whether their learning gain was along the same trajectory as would have been expected without school closures.

There are strong indications of continuing, and even widening, of inequality in learning for these younger children as schools reopened. Notably, an overall widening divide between rural and urban areas following school closures is apparent amongst these younger children. Moreover, among those who attended pre-primary education, learning gains were greater for urban children compared with rural, nearly doubling the gap. A widening gap between urban and rural children who had not attend pre-primary education is even more noticeable, with the gap becoming five times wider. This results in rural children with no pre-primary education being even further left behind (see Figure 2).

A similar pattern is evident for those in different wealth groups, with the poorest children with no pre-primary education showing the slowest gains in learning. This is likely to be due in part to poverty being more pervasive in rural areas. As with the older children, when we disaggregate the results by girls and boys, we do not find a change in the gender gap following school closures.

Notes:

1. In this case, we used the same test prior to school closures and after they reopened, and so we are able to show the results by the percentage of questions that children answered correctly.
2. The numeracy test was from the Measuring Early Learning Quality and Outcomes (MELQO), an international measurement tool for early childhood development, adapted for Ethiopia in 2017/18. The MELQO numeracy test was developed, piloted and validated in consultation with the National Educational Assessment and Examination Agency, the Ministry of Education and the Global MELQO technical board. The adaptation process showed that there is a strong link between the test items and the pre-primary curriculum in Ethiopia. We used the same set of 31 items for early numeracy during the baseline (pre-primary age) and follow-up (Grade 1 age) tests. Questions in the test were simple tasks, with an example of one of the more difficult questions asking children, “If you have 5 stones and you give me 2 stones, how many stones will you have left?”

The widening of the gap in learning between rural and urban areas in both pre-primary and primary education is perhaps partly to be expected. Our evidence collected via phone surveys during school closures identified that teachers in rural areas were less able to support children’s learning, and that households had more limited access to technology and faced other pressures that meant they were less able to support children’s learning at home.

Sadly, our emerging evidence confirms concerns that school closures have disproportionately hit the most disadvantaged. The Ethiopian Government has been responsive to this, including by prioritising the opening of rural schools. However, it is clear that far more needs to be done to prevent the pandemic from having long-lasting effects on children’s futures. Continued attention to a focus on all children achieving the foundational skills will be vital, with a focus on those who are being left behind. Increasing investment in pre-primary education should also be a priority, given the wide gap that remains between those with and without pre-primary education. Ongoing monitoring on the effects on learning for different groups of children of the kind in this blog will be essential to ensure rapid, flexible responses so that all children are learning. And, importantly, it will be critical that this monitoring not only assesses children’s academic learning, but also their socio-emotional learning, which is likely to have been affected by the pandemic. This is an area we are currently exploring further in Ethiopia, and initial findings will be shared soon.

We are grateful to the Research for Improving Systems of Education (RISE) programme, Lego Foundation, and World Bank Early Learning Program for funding the research presented in this blog. Further funding for related research has also been provided by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.